Pulling Out

In 1916, on the eve of America’s declaration of war in the WWI, Harry S. Truman put in $5000—around $147,000 in 2025 dollars—to the Morgan Oil & Refining Company and signed on as treasurer to help the growing business. The company began drilling beneath farmlands in Kansas in hopes that the country’s impending mobilization for war would lead to a gasoline boom.

But instead, business dried up. To add insult to injury, as McCullough writes in Truman, “only later it was it discovered that one of their leases in southeastern Kansas was part of the famous Teeter Pool, a supply of oil that would have made millions for the company and its officers had they just drilled deeper.”

Woof.

How do you know when to keep drilling and when to pull out? If there were signs of oil—and I have no idea what those signs would look like since the only oil I deal with is extra virgin olive—would you notice them? If you’re in a career and you think it’s going nowhere, would you know if you’re on the precipice of a breakthrough?

Asking for a friend.